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阐述了模型校核的意义和作用。对属于模型校核范畴的仿真中的系统状态不连贯问题的基本概念通过乒乓球的下落和反舰导弹攻击目标舰艇的例子进行了说明。介绍了已有的解决系统状态不连贯问题的三种方法,并进行了优、缺点分析。给出了反舰导弹仿真中的目标命中判断模型。指出,反舰导弹仿真中的目标命中判断问题是一个系统状态不连贯问题。为解决该问题,提出并应用了一种新方法预测法。利用预测法,最多进行两步最小步长仿真,就能够以要求的精确度检测到任何一个系统状态不连贯。相对于以前的三种方法,在提高仿真效率的同时,预测法还能够避免对系统状态不连贯问题的漏检。 相似文献
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随着中美实力差距不断缩小和信息技术的发展与扩散,网络安全成为中美新的竞争点和摩擦点,中美在网络安全问题上展开新一轮的博弈,具体体现为网络空间治理权之争、中美网络安全战略博弈和网络技术优势的夺取。 相似文献
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指纹细节点的提取对于指纹识别系统的性能至关重要,文中在二值细化指纹图像的细节点提取算法基础上,对细节点提取范围进行了算法改进,用C++语言实现了一种限制提取范围的算法和一种去除伪细节点的算法。实验表明,改进算法提取细节点的速度和精度都有了明显改进,相对原始的未加限制和去除伪细节点的算法,文中算法耗时减少了约2/3,细节点有效性提升了约3/4。 相似文献
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指纹方向场真实地反映了指纹图像中本质的纹理特征,包括了指纹的基本形状、结构和走势。定义了局部方向场图像的描述方法,可以根据纹理信息有效地描述并区分不同的细节点。在低质量指纹图像,特别是存在较严重非线性形变的指纹图像中,细节点方向属性不够可靠,使得以细节点对作为参考对齐局部方向场图像的方法效果不佳。提出一种改进的局部方向场图像对齐和匹配方法,能够明显改善局部对齐效果,提高局部匹配的准确性,从而更加有效地区分对应和不对应细节点。实验结果验证了提出方法的有效性。 相似文献
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Under quasi‐hyperbolic discounting, the valuation of a payoff falls relatively rapidly for earlier delay periods, but then falls more slowly for longer delay periods. When the salespersons with quasi‐hyperbolic discounting consider the product sale problem, they would exert less effort than their early plan, thus resulting in losses of future profit. We propose a winner‐takes‐all competition to alleviate the above time inconsistent behaviors of the salespersons, and allow the company to maximize its revenue by choosing an optimal bonus. To evaluate the effects of the competition scheme, we define the group time inconsistency degree of the salespersons, which measures the consequence of time inconsistent behaviors, and two welfare measures, the group welfare of the salespersons and the company revenue. We show that the competition always improves the group welfare and the company revenue as long as the company chooses to run the competition in the first place. However, the effect on group time inconsistency degree is mixed. When the optimal bonus is moderate (extreme high), the competition motivates (over‐motivates) the salesperson to work hard, thus alleviates (worsens) the time inconsistent behaviors. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 357–372, 2017 相似文献
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Ian J. Stewart 《The Nonproliferation Review》2019,26(5-6):519-536
ABSTRACTThe International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) faces challenges in fulfilling its safeguards mandate as a result of an expanding safeguards burden and a relatively static budget. This dilemma has been exacerbated by the additional burdens of implementing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in Iran, but would not go away if implementation of the JCPOA were to end. There are three main areas of opportunity for the Agency: (1) budgetary expansion tied to changes in staffing policies, (2) changes in safeguards approaches, and (3) technological innovation. Barriers and limitations are associated with each approach, and advancing any of them will face a difficult political environment in Vienna. 相似文献
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ABSTRACTNuclear disarmament is often seen as eventually requiring access to nuclear warheads or to the warhead-dismantlement process to verify that a state has not hidden weapons or weapon-materials despite promising to disarm. This article suggests this view is misplaced, and that what is needed is a verification mechanism able to provide reliable assurances of the absence of fissile materials available for use in weapons after a state has disarmed. Such a mechanism will need an initial declaration of the amount of fissile materials held by a state for all purposes, military and civilian. In a state with a nuclear arsenal awaiting elimination, this declaration would have to include materials that may not be available for verification because they are in nuclear weapons or are in other classified or proliferation-sensitive forms. This article describes a verification arrangement that does not require access to materials in weapons and in sensitive forms while still allowing checks on the overall accuracy of the declaration. Verification of the completeness and correctness of the declaration is deferred to the time when the weapons-relevant material enters the disposition process, at which point it no longer has any sensitive attributes. By removing the focus on monitoring warheads and dismantlement, this new approach could provide a more manageable path to nuclear disarmament. 相似文献
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Erin D. Dumbacher 《The Nonproliferation Review》2013,20(3-4):203-222
ABSTRACTAn arms race in cyberspace is underway. US and Western government efforts to control this process have largely been limited to deterrence and norm development. This article examines an alternative policy option: arms control. To gauge whether arms-control models offer useful lessons for addressing cyber capabilities, this article compiles a new dataset of predominantly twentieth-century arms-control agreements. It also evaluates two case studies of negotiated agreements that regulate dual-use technologies, the 1928 Geneva Protocol prohibiting chemical- and biological-weapon use and the 1944 Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation. The analysis underscores the limits of norm development for emerging technologies with both civilian and military applications. It finds lessons for developing verifiable, international cooperation mechanisms for cyberwarfare in the regulatory model of international aviation. Conventionally, arms-control agreements take advantage of transparent tests or estimates of arms. To restrict cyberwarfare activities, experts and policy makers must adapt arms-control models to a difficult-to-measure technology at an advanced stage of development and use. Further investigation of international regulatory schemes for dual-use technology of similar diffusion and development to the internet, such as international civil aviation, is needed. 相似文献
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We evaluate the effect of competition on prices, profits, and consumers' surplus in multiperiod, finite horizon, dynamic pricing settings. In our base model, a single myopic consumer visits two competing retailers, who offer identical goods, in a (first order Markovian) probabilistic fashion—if the posted price exceeds the consumer's valuation for the good, he returns to the same store in the following period with a certain probability. We find that even a small reduction in the return probability from one—which corresponds to the monopoly case at which prices decline linearly—is sufficient to revert the price decline from a linear into an exponential shape. Each retailer's profit is particularly sensitive to changes in his return probability when it is relatively high, and is maximized under complete loyalty behavior (i.e., return probability is one). On the other hand, consumer surplus is maximized under complete switching behavior (i.e., return probability is zero). In the presence of many similar consumers, the insights remain valid. We further focus on the extreme scenario where all consumers follow a complete switching behavior, to derive sharp bounds, and also consider the instance where, in this setting, myopic consumers are replaced with strategic consumers. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011 相似文献